(from Dec 17, 2018 till Dec 25, 2018)
We set up the ET system to reduce risks in the event of slow December volatility. It introduced several profit targets:
- First target of 5-8% profit for 25-30% lots
- Second target of 10-12% profit for 15-25% lots
- Third target of 20% profit for 10-15% lots
In those specific trades between Dec 17th till Dec 25th 2018, the system decided to place hard-level limits, instead of dynamic limits based on UM, UMC etc.
Subsequently, the entry was as follows (based on Kraken prices):
XRPUSD (19% profit from invested capital) –
- Buy at 0.30647
- Sell 25% at 0.33007, Sell 25% at 0.36129, Sell 13% at 0.37812 and Sell remaining 27% at potential end of trend at 0.3555
- Then the reentry was done with buy at 0.36579 and sell at 0.38038
BTCUSD (8% profit from invested capital) –
- Buy at 3515
- Sell 25% at 3715.3, Sell 19% at 4018.4 and Sell remaining 56% at potential end of trend at 3773.9
ETHUSD (21% open profit from invested capital) –
- Buy at 91.22
- Sell 29% at 94.54, Sell 18% at 101.03, Sell 13% at 108.94, and remaining 40% are still open
- The ET system is set to be stable and profitable within a time horizon of one year. It does NOT attempt to optimize each trade. This is statistically correct. Optimizing systems to catch each trades’ High and Low leads to overfitting — a situation demonstrably resulting in higher risks and lower returns.
- The system is not optimized to handle extreme cases (74% profit is definitely an extreme move). Arguably, ET Bot was supposed to exit at 70% with remaining lots. But nobody could prevent the market from going to 100%-120% and 150%, and then we would be in the same position — exiting, or not exiting optimally.
- The system performed correctly — it entered at the very start of the trend, locked in the profits, and exited when the trend stopped, resulting in significant profits.
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN; IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM. ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK OF ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT TRADING RESULTS.
Past performance, real or hypothetical, is not indicative of future results.
There is a risk of loss in virtual currency trading.